[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W THEN TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
14W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 19/1500 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 25N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST TO 20N96W. THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER NE MEXICO
THAT IS MOVING TO THE NE. E TO SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND REMAINING MAINLY W
OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
SE FROM A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
CURRENT SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFTS NE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS ADVECTING ACROSS
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EXTENDS SW ALONG
16N70W TO 14N77W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NE WINDS ARE FEEDING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N
BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N40W 20N60W AND TRANSITIONS
STATIONARY TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NEAR 18N64W. A SECONDARY
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND ALONG 31N44W TO 23N55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM WEST...90 NM EAST OF THE
PRIMARY FRONT S OF 25N...AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W AND THE
PRIMARY FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND WNW
WINDS COVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT
ITSELF IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 36N38W TO 30N50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
THIS SHORTWAVE IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE
NE ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1020 MB SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED NEAR
27N22W AND 23N27W. THE RIDGE IS PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS CONTINUING TO
ENHANCE THE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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