[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N40W TO THE NE
BRAZIL COAST NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N E OF 88W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
WHILE LEAVING BEHIND A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
25N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SW GULF NEAR 19N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE MOST OF
THE WESTERN GULF S OF 28N W OF 90W...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF
COAST LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT
CONTINUES ADVECTING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MOISTURE IS AIDING IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 21N79W TO CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. FARTHER EAST...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF
THE FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES CONTINUED HEAVY
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND DUE TO CONVERGENT
NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A LIKELY LAND BREEZE COMING OFF
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THAT BISECTS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF
76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 50W IN THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 30N FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO 30W. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER MUCH
OF THE ATLC BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE W ATLC ANCHORED ON A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
27N75W SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND AREAS SW
TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS SW
ALONG 25N37W TO 21N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM N OF 25N-32N BETWEEN 15W-33W.
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 24W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N23W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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