[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N18W 1N31W 2N45W 1N51W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH CORE WINDS OVER 160 KT
IS LOCATED AT 200 MB. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE NEXT DAY...AND
THEN WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND
TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF.
AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF SPREADING SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WEST OF
93.5W...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF OF DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO JET
STREAK BRUSHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS JET STREAK IS SPREADING
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR JUXTAPOSED WITH DEEP-LAYER
STABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THICKEST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST CUBA TO 16N82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS COUPLED WITH A JET
STREAK FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
ARE SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N55W TO
23N73W TO EASTERN CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N53W
TO 24N63W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AT 1019 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE
EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS PRESENT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 996 MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG
WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT...ARE WITHIN 600 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE EASTERN DISCUSSION AREA FROM 31N19W TO 22N23W...AND
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE WIND
FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS
AROUND 17/1045 UTC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ARIEL COHEN/JOHN CANGIALOSI/JORGE AGUIRRE






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