[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N6W 6N14W 2N23W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE E GULF TO INLAND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 29N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF MAINTAINS NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. THIS IS GENERATING OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF 87W AND
A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 160 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH INLAND OVER E TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA TO INLAND
OVER NE HONDURAS AND TO THE E IS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ENTERING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 20N71W OVER HISPANIOLA TO 17N75W.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
W OF THE COLD FRONT AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N88W. THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUE TO BE
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA
BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN INLAND AND WITHIN 60
NM ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA TO N NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A NEWLY DEVELOPED COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE W ATLC JUST N OF
THE REGION AND WILL BE S OF 32N IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH
32N62W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N68W INTO THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N57W ALONG 30N57W THEN SW 25N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 30N71W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN
150 W OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE




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