[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W.
NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED ALONG OR NEAR
THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE IS BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE WHILE CHANGING THE FLOW MORE EASTERLY. AN UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC IS STREAMING
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF...SEEN AS HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY
SOUTH OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED EAST OF 74W. HOWEVER...A
STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST BASIN ALONG 20N74W 17N77W
13N80W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KT ARE ALSO NOTED TO
THE WEST OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC IS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO
THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN...SEEN AS HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY NORTH OF
16N WEST OF 80W. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 32N EAST AND WEST OF DISCUSSION
AREA...BRINGING SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT AND SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
1018 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 24N37W. HOWEVER...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N50W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N55W 25N60W BECOMING STATIONARY FROM
23N65W AND ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 50 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BASIN. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS ENTERING WEST AFRICA FROM 20N TO 32N. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED EASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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