[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 4N17W 2N32W 2N43W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N
OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-10W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF TAMPA NEAR
29N84W BUT IS GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE
NW GULF AT 15/0300 ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST W OF VERMILION
BAY SW TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FRONT IS
INDICATED BY A WELL DEFINED BUT NARROW SQUALL LINE. OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT AS THE IT MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. OTHERWISE...NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF DRAWING
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO SUPPORTING SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-125 KT ACROSS THE AREA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 85W. EXPECT THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF EXITING THE AREA EARLY TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...ENTER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 11N78W IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROUGH WHILE
THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT BEING
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N42W FROM A LARGE 966 MB OCCLUDED LOW WELL N OF THE
REGION CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N56W TO OVER HISPANIOLA BECOMING A
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE E ATLC OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA NEAR
22N16W EXTENDING WSW TO 19N23W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 17N35W.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net