[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142314
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE S IVORY COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N5W
ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N49W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS INLAND OVER IVORY COAST N OF 3N BETWEEN 4W-7W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN
40W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH S OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. 10 TO 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE THE SURFACE REMAINS STABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND E GULF WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO DRAW A SWATH OF MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. MUCH OF THE SW GULF IS
EXPERIENCING OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT E OUT OF THE BASIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS REACHES THE NW WATERS LATER TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE N
CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY E OF JAMAICA CONTINUING SW TO OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
11N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND ERN CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER THE ERN
HALF OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE THE NW CARIBBEAN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 962 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 42N50W ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA ALONG
26N57W 20N70W BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED ROPE CLOUD ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
ERN SEABOARD AND W ATLC. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS
THE SURFACE RIDGE. A SECOND COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N11W 22N20W 18N36W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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