[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N5W 5N14W 3N30W 2N44W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ E OF
13W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 15/0900 UTC...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE RAPIDLY SE ENTERING THE GULF ALONG THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA
BORDER EXTENDING SW TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO S OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. FRONT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS 6 HOURS AGO WITH OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER-RUNNING THE FRONT. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM E OF THE FRONT AND W
OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE NW GULF COAST STATES. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE ALSO W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT
REMAINS N OF THE GULF WATERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. OTHERWISE...NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF DRAWING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO SUPPORTING A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90-125 KT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S GULF S OF A
LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE TO FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
GULF EXITING THE AREA EARLY TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE W ATLC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN BEHIND THIS LINE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM COLOMBIA
TO NICARAGUA. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N77W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N41W FROM A LARGE 968 MB OCCLUDED LOW
WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N53W TO 21N64W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA INTO THE E ATLC OFF THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA AFRICA TO NEAR 20N17W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 18N24W.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS JUST TO THE E OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BETWEEN
THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE






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