[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIAN NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N44W...
INTO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL 1S50W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR THIS AREA IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS ABOUT 36 HOURS FROM NOW.

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO COASTAL NICARAGUA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE TROUGH PASSES
OVER BERMUDA TO 22N70W TO 17N70W. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W
TO 28N60W TO 20N70W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
FROM 20N70W TO 16N77W TO COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. ONE TROUGH
IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 29N.
A SECOND TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...WITHIN 200 NM TO THE
NORTH OF 26N...WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM FROM 21N TO 26N...AND 400 NM
AWAY FROM THE FRONT ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 75W...
REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 20N73W 26N61W BEYOND 32N50W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 80W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CROSSING LAND...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT HAS SET
OFF A LINE OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT IS ALONG 20N47W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 14N60W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA ALONG 66W/67W.
A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BECOMES
INDISTINCT BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA/
BELIZE. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
22N51W TO 20N65W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES MOROCCO NEAR 31N10W FROM THE NORTH.
ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH GOES FROM 23N28W TO 29N29W. A THIRD TROUGH
GOES FROM 15N27W TO 11N33W TO 4N36W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W
TO 30N16W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N16W TO 27N23W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N23W TO 22N32W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM
A FORMER FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N32W TO 22N47W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N35W.
A RIDGE GOES FROM 27N35W TO 22N51W TO 20N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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