[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W 2N30W 2N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...TO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL 1S50W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS ABOUT 48 HOURS FROM NOW.

FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO COASTAL NICARAGUA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE CURRENT COLD
FRONT NOW IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE FRONT. THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
BERMUDA TO 22N70W. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 28N60W TO
17N71W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE
FRONT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 71W AT THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
HAITI TO 16N78W...TO COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N73W 27N61W BEYOND 32N52W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N83W 20N73W...AND FROM WESTERN PANAMA
TO COSTA RICA...AND FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...CROSSING LAND...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
SUPPORTS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT HAS SET
OFF A LINE OF MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT IS ALONG 23N50W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N53W 16N60W 14N64W...TO COASTAL VENEZUELA
ALONG 67W. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
17N82W. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
21N53W TO 20N67W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N15W FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
BRANCH OF A TROUGH GOES IS ALONG 30W FROM 23N TO 30N. A THIRD
TROUGH GOES FROM 16N26W TO 10N34W TO 4N38W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N15W TO 27N23W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N23W TO 23N30W 22N38W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N34W. A RIDGE GOES FROM 27N34W TO 21N53W TO 20N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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