[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
5N10W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL
COAST NEAR 1S48W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ
FROM 34W TO 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. AT SURFACE...MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW COOL AND DRY ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL AND WET WEATHER TO THE
REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXCEPT FOR A WEAKENING FRONT ATTEMPTING TO CROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR NEAR 20N74W...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH CENTRAL JAMAICA TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W.
SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS IT
DISSIPATES...WITH A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
41N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE CENTER LOW ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N64W...EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 30N70W
28N75W TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 30N81W. SCATTER WEAK
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ALSO A
COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N55W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N60W 25N65W 22N70W
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 50W...WITH
SEAS 10 TO 15 FEET...EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE
CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE FRONT FROM 30N50W TO 25N55W. SCATTER WEAK CONVECTION IS 80
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A
SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 27N37W. NEVERTHELESS...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N17W
AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N21W 24N28W BECOMING A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N30W 22N37W 20N45W. WEAK
CONVECTION IS 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LEAVING A FEW LINGERING SCATTER
SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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