[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SRN IVORY COAST IN AFRICA
NEAR 5N5W ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR
1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN
44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BUILDING S FROM
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER N ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...IS ENHANCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE
RIDGE...REACHING 20 KT IN SOME AREAS. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY
FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SLY RETURN
FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC ENTERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY FAR ERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W
CONTINUING ACROSS NE JAMAICA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
NEAR 15N83W WHERE IT LINES THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 85W-88W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG 75W WHICH EXTENDS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BETWEEN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
AREA TO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N71W TO NW OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N77W.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM AN OCCLUDED 976
MB LOW NEAR 29N62W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W
ALONG 26N64W TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 75 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
28N. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CLIPS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT
FROM 32N67W TO 30N73W INTO GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 30N55W TO 24N59W DEPICTING
AN AREA OF CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE FRONT...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 75W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N41W...AND SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 44W. HOWEVER...A SECOND COLD FRONT
PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 31N18W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 23N34W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO NEAR 20N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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