[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W 3N30W 2N42W TO COASTAL
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 90W AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY.
A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT...
PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 25N73W TO THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W...TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...ACROSS NICARAGUA FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER INTO NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. A REMNANT CLOUD
LINE FROM AN EARLIER PART OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND IT REACHES 29N91W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 32N58W 24N70W 18N80W 15N83W...AND FROM SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N19W TO 29N24W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N30W 21N43W...AND STATIONARY 21N43W 20N51W
TO 22N59W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM AN EARLIER PART OF THE COLD
FRONT GOES FROM 22N59W TO 24N60W AND 28N61W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N18W TO 25N30W 21N50W 22N58W 29N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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