[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 4N20W
3N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE AXIS...75 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW BEGUN TO SHIFT
EWD...CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER N ALABAMA NEAR
24N88W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E GULF. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS
AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE...REACHING 20 KT ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND W GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA
WITH MODERATE MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE BASIN
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW TEXAS
PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT
AND RAPIDLY MOVES E ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W CONTINUING SW TO THE
CENTRAL NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 13N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA N OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-75W...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE NICARAGUA COASTLINE...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG
65W. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA TO EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...EXTENSIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BOTH THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT
IS ALSO ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SW N ATLC TODAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N60W ALONG 27N70W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N80W. A LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS E OF THE TROUGH FROM A 972 MB LOW OFF THE NEWFOUNDLAND
COAST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING SW
ALONG 25N61W TO NRN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W WHERE IS BECOMES A
DYING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N...AND
WITHIN 60NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT S
OF 26N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS FROM 29N53W TO 22N63W. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W. FARTHER
E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N33W...AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 35W.
HOWEVER...A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 5N37W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE WRN HALF OF THE ATLC ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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