[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 2N40W
TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
26N90W 18N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO N FLORIDA ALONG
31N86W 30N80W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND COASTAL STATES. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 87W-93W. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING E. ELSEWHERE...S
FLORIDA HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE STRONG WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W PRODUCING 90-130 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND OVER S FLORIDA WHERE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND RAIN EXTENDING S TO S FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO
JAMAICA ALONG 20N70W 18N79W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-82W.
A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W TO
HISPANIOLA ALONG 27N50W 22N60W 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE N OF 29N WITHIN 420 NM E OF FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1023 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N21W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 50W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E TO 32N31W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS
TO PERSIST E OF THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA









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