[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 042330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N20W
2N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM
13W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER ERN TEXAS ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SC
AND SE UNITED STATES. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ALONG 24N93W TO THE SRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE LOW
TO NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS W OF THE LOW TO A SECOND 1007 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COVER THE
AREA W OF 87W. ,LIGHTING DATA SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A
STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN
MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. COASTAL OFFICES HAVE
ISSUED FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE
GULF COASTLINE FROM NW FLORIDA TO E TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM FRI N OF 23N E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E GULF. ALSO...EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
WITH IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W. THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A COLD
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA
MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES EWD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A DEEPENED 958 MB LOW NEAR
40N50W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N46W CONTINUING SW
ALONG 26N54W TO 26N65W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE
FRONT ALONG 30N45W 25N54W 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING
FROM THE COLD FRONT TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA SE TO NEAR 22N44W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AND SURFACE
TROUGH...AS WELL AS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N
BETWEEN 37W-45W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N26W PROVIDING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON






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