[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...THROUGH THE
EQUATOR ALONG 50W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR
ALONG 52W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM
TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N10W 4N12W 3N16W 3N22W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 22W AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
NEAR 15N106W...TO 22N108W TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 27N106W IN MEXICO BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG
BEND. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVER MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N102W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N94W 27N90W AND
24N85W. SHOWERS ARE EASILY POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF 90W.
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST OF 90W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE
ENTIRE AREA AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 40 NM
TO THE WEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA...BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 80W ALONG
18N. THE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE CYCLONIC TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 2N54W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W
TO 27N60W 24N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 80 NM TO 160 NM
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 22N.
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED TO THE NORTH
OF 29N WITHIN 360 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N54W 29N50W...AND TOP THE NORTH OF
29N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 27N35W
30N28W 31N24W 32N20W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM 31N14W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N25W TO 22N36W TO 20N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT


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