[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 2N30W TO
THE NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR
27N98W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO AT 25N102W.

A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
28N94W 27N90W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE W
GULF...E TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO W OF 90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
RAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND FLORIDA S OF 30N HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY 20-30 KT. WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ARE 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
60'S OVER S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40'S AND 50'S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 82W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W
GULF... TEXAS...AND MEXICO W OF 90W...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF
25N BETWEEN 80W-90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE NE TO S MISSISSIPPI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... WARM
FRONT... AND RAIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE TO
PANAMA. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SE FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N51W TO THE S BAHAMAS
ALONG 27N60W 24N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
31N36W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 30N28W
27N33W 27N40W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
26N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE W
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N42W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT A GALE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W
WITHIN 6 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA







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