[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 2N30W TO
THE NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 15W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
27N99W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 28N97W 28N90W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER
THE W GULF...E TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO W OF 90W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS RAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS OVER
THE NW GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY 20-30 KT. WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF ARE 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60'S OVER S
FLORIDA AND S TEXAS... WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND
50'S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
82W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF...
TEXAS...AND MEXICO W OF 90W...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N
BETWEEN 83W-90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO
MOVE NE TO LOUISIANA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... WARM FRONT...
AND RAIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS
TO PANAMA. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SE FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N58W TO THE S BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT.
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N25W 28N34W 26N40W.
ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N29W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF
20N W OF 70W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E TO 32N42W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A GALE TO FORM OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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