[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 3N40W
TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND BETWEEN 38W-41W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N88W 18N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N80W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN
...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
COASTAL STATES E OF 95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-91W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING E. ELSEWHERE...THE TEXAS COAST AND NW GULF
W OF 95W S HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
COLD FRONT ARE STRONG WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE COLD
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 78W PRODUCING 90-130 KT SW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N76W AND DEEPEN TO 992 MB WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT AND RAIN EXTENDING S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N80W. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN HAVE 15-20 KT NW SURFACE
FLOW WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO GO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 17N MOVING E. ELSEWHERE... A
RESIDUAL CLOUD LINE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG
20N70W 18N79W WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 68W...
AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-82W. A FAIRLY
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BELIZE WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W TO
THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 23N50W 21N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 36W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N
WITHIN 420 NM E OF FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N13W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE NEW W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N76W TO 30N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N27W WITH SHOWERS. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE E OF BOTH FRONTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA








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