[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W EQ50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW
ACROSS N FLORIDA TO A NEWLY FORMED 1011 MB LOW IN THE E GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 20N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E
OF THE JACKSONVILLE LOW FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO IN VICINITY OF THE E
GULF LOW FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-87W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 86W.
FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF ALONG 26N96W
20N94W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE 60'S
AND 70'S OVER SOUTH...CENTRAL...AND NORTH FLORIDA... WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE GULF...EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH LOW
CENTERS TO MOVE E. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE JACKSONVILLE LOW
TO DEEPEN TO 1005 MB AND BE NEAR 33N74W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE GULF LOW WILL ALSO BE
EMBEDDED ON THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W. THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
E GULF AND FLORIDA WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 27N55W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 26N70W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FURTHER TO N FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AT 30N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTS WHILE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE JACKSONVILLE LOW FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 78W-80W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N47W. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N18W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
28N-34N BETWEEN 15W-19W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF 40W. A
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N18W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 15N30W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS...FOR CONVECTION TO BE E OF THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT N OF
22N BETWEEN 63W-72W. ALSO EXPECT THE CANARY ISLAND LOW TO MOVE
NE TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 34N13W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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