[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 4N20W EQ40W 1S47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND FROM
1S-1N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N80W 27N84W
24N88W 21N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF
FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF
27N. FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS
AND NE MEXICO ALONG 29N95W 23N96W PRODUCING A WIND SHIFT. MOSTLY
10-15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 60'S OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA... AND ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF
STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE GULF... EXCEPT THE NW
GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS...FOR A 1006 MB LOW TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
AND A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE E GULF WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER
LEVEL WINDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W TO 26N70W.
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N47W. A 1005 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 29N18W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
CENTER FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 16W-19W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
W OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS
AT 30N18W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 15N30W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS...FOR A 1006 MB LOW TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA
NEAR 32N77W. ALSO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO EXTEND E FROM THE LOW
TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 29N60W. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E
TO BEYOND 32N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA



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