[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR
5N9W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE
NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
DETECTED ALONG THE ITCZ...EXCEPT WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST FROM 2S TO 2N BETWEEN 46W AND
61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BASIN...ENHANCING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF
MERGING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A COLD FRONT TROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG
30N82W 28N84W 26N84W 23N85W. SATELLITE INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF 29N.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SOUTH OF 29N...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA AS THE TERRAIN MAY BE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALLS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CLEARING WEATHER BEHIND.

SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF SHOW NORTHERLY
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGION NORTH OF
23N. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC MOVING ACROSS MEXICO
INTO THE GULF...THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST UPPER
LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SEEN AS UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE WEST OF 85W...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ALONG 27N96W 23N95W 20N94W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERING MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT
SOUTH OF 18N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE BASIN...WHERE THE TAIL TIP OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL IS PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN CUBA. LOOK FOR THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A JET-STREAK IS PREPARING TO ENTER THE DISCUSSION
AREA...SUPPORTING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA THAT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING AND
ENHANCING A PAIR OF MERGING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N78W AND 30N77W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERNMOST CENTER LOW ALONG
31N78W...CONNECTING TO THE SECOND LOW CENTER AT 30N77W...AND
CONTINUING SOUTH TO FREEPORT...NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERNMOST CENTER LOW ALONG
28N76W 26N72W...BECOMING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 26N68W 27N60W 27N50W 30N40W.
SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION...MODERATE TO
STRONG...WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...IS FROM 29N TO 34N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THESE TWO LOWS WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO
ONE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DEEPENING TO NEAR 998 MB.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
25N47W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING MOS OF THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 27. THIS SYSTEM IS
BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 25N. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

EAST ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N16W. SCATTERED WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF PORTUGAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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