[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N14W TO 5N28W TO 2N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 1N51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 3N18W...AND WITHIN
120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N18W 3N32W 2N43W 1N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE LAST REMAINS
OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE LAST COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO REACH THE BAHAMAS
AND BARELY THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG
92W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST
ALONG 92W INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 55W INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 32N72W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW A BEYOND 32N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE
COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 58W. THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 25N64W...ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...CURVING THROUGH 14N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
FINALLY TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 80W/81W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N57W 27N60W 24N63W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM
CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WIND CONDITIONS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 78W WITH SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET IN THE WEST TO 28 FEET IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTION IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL...AND TO THE NORTH
OF 25N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEA
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N70W TO 27N73W. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF
THE FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N66W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...
TO 16N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N75W TO THE PANAMA NEAR
9N78W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE ELSE...AND
EVEN ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 12N IN
THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH 32N26W TO 18N31W TO 10N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W JUST OFF THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N28W AND 21N40W. THE MOST APPARENT
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FOUND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS TO
THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 16W AND 26W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N17W 21N40W COLD
FRONT AND 56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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