[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N13W
WESTWARD TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 2N40W 2N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
21W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N92W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MORE OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS HAS ADVECTED OVER MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ.
20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT
WINDS OVER THE W GULF. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S
OVER THE N GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT...CONTINUED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO DUE TO RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA
ALONG 20N72W 15N79W 10N83W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA NW OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT N
WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N76W TO 9N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 73W-78W. PATCHES OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 67W-73W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N62W TO HAITI ALONG
26N65W 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NW OF THE FRONT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 26N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. A 1022
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N20W TO 26N30W AND DISSIPATES
TO 22N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE FRONT FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 21W-25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. A UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N53W. EXPECT...THE
W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N51W TO PUERTO RICO IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS...A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND
GALE FORCE WINDS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION N OF 27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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