[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 3N19W 2N34W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF TONIGHT ANCHORED
BY A SERIES OF 1029 MB HIGHS...ONE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF
LOUISIANA...SECOND OVER W/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A THIRD OVER W
KENTUCKY. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN
THE W ATLC IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COVERING ONLY THE FAR NE
GULF TONIGHT GIVING THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE RETURN FLOW
IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 94W TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO NE OF MINATITLAN AND INLAND OVER E TEXAS.
THIS IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER TEXAS WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF ARE HOVERING NEAR
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER A PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 84W-94W. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NW HAITI JUST E OF
JAMAICA TO 15N80W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS N OF 15N W OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM E OF THE FRONT. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SW TO W FLOW
ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF DENSE
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N W OF 71W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA...AND N OF 15N TO OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-76W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
SE CARIBBEAN EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 57W INTO THE
FAR E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W ALONG 25N66W JUST E OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ACROSS NW HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICS NEAR 9N57W TO
BEYOND 32N48W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 350/400 NM E OF
THE ABOVE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS REMAIN W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE E
ATLC N OF 10N E OF 37W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N18W EXTENDING TO
27N26W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 221N34W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SPLIT A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLC TO OVER AFRICA WITH A 1022 MB HIGH W OF THE FRONT NEAR
30N43W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER ALGERIA NEAR 32N3W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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