[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N09W 02N17W 06N34W 04N47W 02N51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 03N-10N ALONG
34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 27W-34W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM 02N-09N ALONG 47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 38W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 13/0300 UTC...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING A BROAD AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE W ATLC
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. GIVEN THE POSITION...IT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE
GULF WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR ALSO IS
CAPTURING ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
STRONG N-NW WINDS CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED PREDOMINATELY OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE
RIDGE IS SETTLING IN AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE
GULF THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
CANADIAN AIRMASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N82W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. THE COLD FRONT IS DEFINED BY A
LINE OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IT CONTINUES MOVING SE
NEARLY 15-18 KT AND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N64W
THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N TO 90W OVER
PORTIONS OF THE E PACIFIC REGION. BENEATH THIS OVERALL
DIFFLUENCE AIRMASS...AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED
ALONG 77W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO SOUTH-CENTRAL JAMAICA NEAR
18N77W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N78W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES WERE NOTED ON AN 13/0146 UTC
ASCAT PASS THAT CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW-LEVEL AREAS OF MOISTURE
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ABC ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N76W TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES MARCHING NEAR 15-18 KT TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 18N59W 23N56W TO 27N56W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N
BETWEEN 55W-61W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 23N ALONG 46W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG 28N BETWEEN
27W-50W ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN
31W-56W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF 45W AND SUPPORTS A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT FROM 27N22W TO 24N32W TO 25N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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