[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N13W 04N25W 05N45W 01N49W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 02N43W
TO 06N45 TO 09N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-08N BETWEEN 22W-35W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N-09N BETWEEN 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 13/0900 UTC...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING A BROAD AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A BASE IN THE SE GULF NEAR 23N85W. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OVER THE W
ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE THIS FRONT HAS FULLY CLEARED THE
GULF...A SECONDARY PULSE OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM FORT PIERCE TO
FORT MYERS. QUICK MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 87W AS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS APPEAR
ENHANCED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...STRONG N-NW WINDS CONTINUE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SETTLING IN AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY USHERING IN A VERY COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N79W TO BELIZE
CITY BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. THE COLD FRONT IS DEFINED BY A LINE OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IT CONTINUES MOVING SE AT NEARLY 15-18
KT AND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N60W THAT EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N TO 90W OVER PORTIONS OF THE E
PACIFIC REGION. BENEATH THIS OVERALL DIFFLUENCE AIRMASS...AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOTED NEAR A SHEAR LINE ALONG
78W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM EASTERN
HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO EASTERN PANAMA NEAR
08N78W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADES WERE NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS THAT CONTINUE TO
ADVECT AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE ABC ISLANDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W-72W AND THE NE
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 69W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N74W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES MARCHING EASTWARD AT NEAR
15-18 KT. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
32N71W TO 27N69W AND INTO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
25N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 26N-32N. EASTWARD FROM THE LOW
CENTER...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ALONG 26N TO NEAR 26N58W.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG 17N61W 22N56W TO 26N56W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 55W-62W. FARTHER EAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY N OF 25N ALONG 45W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A
COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG 27N BETWEEN 25W-45W ARE PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 25W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF
45W AND SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM 26N23W TO 24N35W TO 25N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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