[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W 7N33W 4N40W 5N46W 2N51W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 33W S OF 10N.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 22W-35W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ ALONG 46W S OF 10N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO SW FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES AT 26N82W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N85W 21N94W 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NW OF THE
FRONT WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO 40'S AND 50'S ALONG THE N GULF COAST... WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70'S FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER MIAMI
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
GULF IN 12 HOURS WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND N WINDS REMAINING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E
PANAMA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 68W-84W.
20-25 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W WHILE 5-10
KT E WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 75W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS WITH
COLD NW WINDS N OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO S
FLORIDA AT 26N81W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE TROUGH.
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED WELL N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO E OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 25N60W 23N56W 17N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FURTHER E FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 50W-54W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG
32N24W 29N30W 29N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS W OF 30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W WITH A TROUGH AXIS
ALONG 20W. EXPECT...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
32N67W TO E CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ALSO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION NW OF THE
FRONT TOGETHER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




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