[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W TO 5N30W 4N40W TO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 43W AND 50W...NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURVES FROM
9N45W TO 6N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N89W. A WARM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1014 MB
LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTH CENTER GULF...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE
NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT BANKS
AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...FROM JUST OUTSIDE THE
WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 22N100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W
TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM NICARAGUA BEYOND EASTERN
CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9.5N78W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 78W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TO THE
NORTH OF 4N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. A REMNANT CLOUD CURVES FROM THE
AREA OF THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER TO 14N76W 16N73W AND 17N68W.
RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE WATERS
FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO0-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 40W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N24W 20N30W TO 12N32W.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N22W. A STATIONARY FRONT
GOES FROM THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER TO 33N17W. A DEVELOPING COLD
FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N19W 20N25W TO 20N32W.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
28N26W BEYOND 32N21W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N41W 28N48W 24N53W 18N56W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 35N50W 30N52W. AN ACTIVE COLD
FRONT ENDS AT 31N59W... AND IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT FROM 31N59W TO 27N65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENDS
AT 32N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N53W TO 27N58W
TO 21N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 30N52W BEYOND 33N49W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE IS
ALONG 12N34W 11N42W 12N51W 11N56W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 34W AND 54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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