[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W TO 5N30W 4N40W TO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 3N BETWEEN 5W AND 20W...FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 23W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 26N84W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CONSISTS OF A 1014 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N87W...A WARM FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO WESTERN CUBA...AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE 1014 MB LOW
CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE EASTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT BANKS AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...FROM JUST OUTSIDE THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO 21N100W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N99W TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE EAST OF 86W...ALSO MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM NICARAGUA BEYOND EASTERN
CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N75W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM THE PANAMA COAST NEAR
9.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N
TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. A REMNANT CLOUD CURVES FROM 18N63W
TO 17N70W 14N74W TO 9N77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF 40W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N24W 20N30W TO 12N32W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO
24N20W 20N26W 19N34W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N24W BEYOND 32N22W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N43W 27N50W 20N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM
31N BEYOND 32N. THE END OF ONE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
REACHES 31N53W. THE END POINT OF A SECOND DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT REACHES 31N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N58W TO
26N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF EACH BOUNDARY. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE IS 11N/12N BETWEEN
34W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN
36W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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