[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 6N30W 4N40W 5N48W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM 2N TO 12N EAST OF 27W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 10N47W TO
4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W
AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 25N90W WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N92W 20N93W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. MARINE OBS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT TO UP TO GALE FORCE BEHIND
THE FRONT. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG
26N87W TO 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 110 NM NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ESE FAIRLY QUICK...SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ESE ACROSS
THE NW GULF. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
OVER WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK OVER THE NW GULF BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGING WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SW CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA IS ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE FROM
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO EASTERN PANAMA ALONG 18N71W 15N75W TO A
NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW AROUND 9N78W. STRONGER NE WINDS
AND EASTERLY TRADES CONVERGE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE SHEAR LINE
AND INTO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. CONDITIONS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCATED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION E OF
70W...INCLUDING THE THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS
A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.
FIRST...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N60W
AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 27N70W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
ASCAT PASS DEPICTED STRONGER NW WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N62W.
THEN...IT CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N
OF 26N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
SHEAR LINE S OF 22N. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE RIDGING PREDOMINATES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 25W
AND 50W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED
OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N25W. ISOLATED SHOWERS GENERALLY
REMAIN N OF 29N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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