[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N30W 2N49W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM 2N TO 10N...PARTIALLY IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEXT TO FRENCH GUIANA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N
TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 53W AND
57W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF
THE RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM GUATEMALA TO CENTRAL MEXICO BEYOND
WEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PASSING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS...TO THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO MEXICO AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD AND
REACHING SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS CAUGHT UP
IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH THAT
EVENTUALLY REACHES 30N50W FROM NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT IS
MARKED QUITE WELL BY A BAND OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 24N90W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 24N65W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN CURACAO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/0000 UTC IS 5.01 INCHES. PERSISTENT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IN THE AREA OF A 700 MB
INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOLIDLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM NICARAGUA BEYOND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 20N65W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA...CURVING TOWARD
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N90W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
24N65W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N51W TO 26N55W 20N65W BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEYOND THE MONA
PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N50W...COVERING THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ROUGHLY FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND THE COLD FRONT.
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST
OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 32N23W 22N23W 13N31W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM
30N17W TO 23N23W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
23N23W TO 19N30W AND 11N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/REMNANT CLOUD
LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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