[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 5N52W 6N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 24W-33W...AND FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 45W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING S OVER FLORIDA AND THE N
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N80W 27N90W 25N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. A LOT OF SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO NOTED N OF
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 70'S S OF THE FRONT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER BELIZE...HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-76W.
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W S OF 15N. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT.
GALE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N49W 28N50W 20N60W.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N18W 25N24W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 16W-19W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W
OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 35W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS... FOR THE THREE ATLANTIC FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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