[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N28W 8N37W
5N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM 2N TO 10N...PARTIALLY
IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEXT TO FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN
42W AND 46W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 8N
TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF THE
RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM GUATEMALA TO CENTRAL MEXICO BEYOND WEST
TEXAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N88W. A COLD FRONT IS PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO EAST TEXAS...THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE TO
SEE THE COLD FRONT ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 6 HOUR TO 12 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN CURACAO FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
05/0000 UTC IS 5.01 INCHES. PERSISTENT RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IN THE AREA OF A 700 MB
INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOLIDLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT GOES
FROM NICARAGUA BEYOND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 23N60W TO 20N66W TO
THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N65W 19N72W 16N78W 13N85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N88W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS...TO 25N66W AND 26N60W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT
IS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N56W 23N60W 20N66W BEYOND
THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W
27N55W 20N65W BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
20N54W...COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY FROM 16N TO 26N
BETWEEN 44W AND THE COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 40W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N25W 22N29W
13N33W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO THE WESTERN CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 26N20W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N20W TO
18N33W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 18N33W TO
12N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
37W AND 42W...AND POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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