[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 7N40W 8N46W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR LINE TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CONTINENTAL DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GULF...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW OVER THE
WEST ATLANTIC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. COLD AIR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS
HAVE YIELD LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER A GREAT PART OF
THE BASIN S OF 25N. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 25N E
OF 87W WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE FAR NW AND SW CORNERS OF THE BASIN. THE
MOST REMARKABLE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS OVER THE WEST ATLC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N81W 19N84W 15N87W.
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE BEHIND  FRONT. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
COVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR A 1009
MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ
THAT CROSSES FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 75W.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FLARE UP DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA W OF 66W.
15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
S OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS
SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE W ATLANTIC THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 32N70W
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF FRONT. 20 KT NW
WINDS ARE N OF FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTS A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N66W...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WESTERN ATLC. A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N31W 23N40W 16N48W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 20N40W TO 12N48W. THIS SCENARIO IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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