[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 4N30W 6N40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM THE EQUATOR LINE TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 41W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CONTINENTAL DRY/COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF THIS
MORNING...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW OVER
THE WEST ATLANTIC. ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF UP TO 15 KT IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. COLD AIR ADVECTING
OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS HAVE YIELD LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER A GREAT PART OF THE BASIN S OF 27N. A RATHER TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 25N E OF 87W WITH GUSTY NE WINDS UP TO 20
KT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXCEPT THE FAR NW
AND SW CORNERS OF THE BASIN. THE MOST REMARKABLE SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE NE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM WESTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS
ALONG 22N81W 20N85W 15N88W. OVERCAST LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW OFF
THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO INFLUENCED
BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ THAT CROSSES
FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 75W. AS THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF S AMERICA...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FLARE UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA WEST OF 66W. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS
ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO
COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS
SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE W ATLANTIC THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 32N68W
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF FRONT. 20 KT NW
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTS A WEAK 1016 MB
HIGH NEAR 25N69W...KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WESTERN ATLC. A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GENERATING A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N41W 27N44W 24N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A FAIRLY STRONG
SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N30W 26N33W
21N37W DISSIPATING TO 15N44W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM
20N33W TO 14N38W. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 28W AND
35W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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