[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED DEC 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 8N45W 7N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 27W-38W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN GUYANA ANS E VENEZUELA FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXETNDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN
84W-95W...AND OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
COASTAL MEXICO S OF 22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. A TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE 20-25 KT N WINDS ARE
NOTED. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO THE 50'S OVER THE N COASTAL
STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E TO
THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT E TO SE LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXETNDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO
NW HONDURAS ALONG 20N86W 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM NW OF FRONT. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NW OF FRONT TO INCLUDE
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA NEAR 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND N COLOMBIA FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 73W-85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 70W-73W. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE
E OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S 15N BETWEEN 74W-86W. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. 20 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF FRONT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N33W TO 26N40W 22N50W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH AXIS ALONG 25W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE E FROM 32N 65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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