[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N15W 5N30W 6N44W 9N54W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN
29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E HALF OF THE U.S. COVERING THE
GULF WATERS FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO AND
SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 01/1500 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND
EVERGLADE CITY EXTENDING ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM
SE OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM
EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 27N89W TO OVER GEORGIA CONTINUING
N JUST INLAND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH WINDS OF 85 TO 100
KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR IS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING
WEST OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF
TEXAS JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE EXITING THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT AS IT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN AT 01/1500 UTC ALONG THE W
COAST CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 19N87W THEN CONTINUING S ALONG THE
COAST OF BELIZE TO JUST INLAND OVER NW HONDURAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW
REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA COUPLED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AND TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W-70W.
THE N CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ALOFT N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 01/1500 UTC NEAR 32N77W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH DENSE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF
THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO
THE W TIP OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA ALONG 73W TO BEYOND 32N COVERING MOST OF
THE W ATLC BETWEEN 66W-77W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N BETWEEN
40W-66W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W TO 21N52W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
AS A COLD FRONT TO 19N58W BECOMING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND TO OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
N OF 20N W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF 27N E OF 25W TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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