[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 7N40W 12N50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS FROM
2N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 140 TO 250 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-53W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS RIGHT OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N82W ACROSS THE SE GULF ALONG 24N84W INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD RATHER
QUICKLY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURE IN ITS
PATH...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6
TO 9 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO LINES OF
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM W OF
FRONT. NNW WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE E
OF FRONT 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE
NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY...LOOK FOR
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NW INTO THE N CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ARE LEAVING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED
NEAR A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALSO...15-25 KT
TRADE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO...LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND THE FAR NW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS DUE TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTH
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS COVERING THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 65W.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE
FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 77W...ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 79W N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W
22N50W TO 19N60W DISSIPATING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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