[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W...
CURVING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 15W IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N13W
8N40W TO 7N58W AT THE COAST OF GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WITH IT MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF 88W. MOST OF FLORIDA LOOKS FOR
RAIN FOR FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND
TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N98W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO BELIZE. THIS TROUGH HAS
PERSISTED FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND
AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDS...COVER
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ALREADY-DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO BELIZE. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST
FIVE DAYS OR SO...EVEN REACHING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AT TIMES
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO ARE ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W. BOTH AREAS OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AREA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 28N50W TO
23N60W TO 20N70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDS...ARE WITHIN
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N83W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
25N70W 26N60W 29N50W BEYOND 32N40W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
DIFFLUENT ALONG 50W ROUGHLY AT 32N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
29N41W 23N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 25N54W 29N46W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN
36W AND 46W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AROUND A RIDGE
THAT IS ALONG 19N53W 24N43W 29N36W BEYOND 32N34W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE
EAST OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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