[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N30W 3N40W TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 7W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W
PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 90W WHERE 15-20 KT SW
WINDS ARE NOTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10 KT SW SURFACE
FLOW. SMOKE IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N BETWEEN
90W-97W MOVING NW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE
OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM
22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-86W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF
TO MOVE N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ALONG 20N74W 22N80W 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE TROUGH MOVING N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
76W-79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 90W-93W. RADAR
IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA TO THE HIGH CENTER TO
GUADELOUPE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND E CUBA...OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W TO N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N60W 21N69W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N31W. A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N44W. IN THE TROPICS...A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 56W-60W MOVING
W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-65W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 30W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA



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