[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 5N20W 4N30W 4N40W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N15 8N45W TO 7N58W AT THE COAST OF GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA...
BRINGING WITH IT MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN CUBA HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT.
SHOWERS REACHED SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
MORE PRECIPITATION MAY BE ON THE WAY FOR FLORIDA...AND THEN
AGAIN PRECIPITATION MAY NOT HAPPEN AT ALL. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PART OF
THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF
HONDURAS THAT ARE NEAR 16N86W. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED FOR AT
LEAST THE LAST FIVE DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AROUND
AN ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDS...COVER
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 70W. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER ALREADY-DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...ACROSS
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 16N86W IN THE
HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS TROUGH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST
FIVE DAYS OR SO...EVEN REACHING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AT TIMES
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 66W.
SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ALSO ARE FROM 16N TO
20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BOTH AREAS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS
UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 82W
INCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ABOUT 150 NM
TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...AND THE ITCZ NOW IS RUNNING THROUGH
NORTHERN COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW AREA
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N50W TO
22N60W TO 20N70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...HIGH CLOUDS...ARE
WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W IN SOUTH
FLORIDA...25N60W 27N50W BEYOND 32N40W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALONG 50W ROUGHLY AT 33N. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 32N36W 20N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N51W 32N36W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT...AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N73W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AROUND A RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 20N50W
27N37W BEYOND 32N31W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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