[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0550 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR
6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF FROM
MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS CONTINUING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD TO 50 NM EAST
OF TUXPAN MEXICO. A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH
CENTRAL BASIN FROM NEW ORLEANS CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W.
FURTHERMORE A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS BRINGING CONVECTION TO MOST OF THE STATE SOUTH OF 30N. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE THREE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES ARE BRINGING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO
FORT MYERS FLORIDA. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
THESE SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES OUT OF FLORIDA...THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY LATE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN.
WITHIN IT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR
25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA
ALONG 80W CONTINUING TO NEAR 20N81W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST
OF 75W. THIS ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
OF A LINE FROM 19N71W OVER HISPANIOLA TO 15N78W. SIMILAR
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT
TERMINATES SOUTH OF BARBADOS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N70W TO
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR
26N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTER LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 26N77W TO 26N75W. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 35W TO 75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE  ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
NEAR 26N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N26W 21N33W TO 16N41W CONTINUING AS
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 13N50W TO SOUTH OF BARBADOS NEAR
12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 80 TO 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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