[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N17W 1N26W 1N43W INTO BRAZIL
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-22W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
4W-10W AND FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 18/2100 UTC...COMPLEX SCENARIO DOMINATES THE GULF THIS
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W GULF JUST S OF
GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN...A SECOND
COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE
BECOMING STATIONARY OVER TALLAHASSEE JUST INLAND ALONG THE N
GULF COAST TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER THEN EXTENDING NW TO A
1013 MB LOW N OF WACO TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE W GULF COLD FRONT N OF
24N AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE N GULF COAST. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1008 MB LOW IN THE SE
GULF NEAR 26N83W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E ACROSS S FLORIDA
AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER KEY WEST AND THE NW COAST
OF CUBA TO 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MOST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 84W FROM 25N-29N INTO THE W ATLC.
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THESE SURFACE FEATURES
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH A WEAK
UPPER LOW NEAR AUSTIN TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N91W
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND
THE E PACIFIC REGION. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W CONTINUING S OVER HONDURAS INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST E OF
TRINIDAD DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GIVING MOST OF
THE AREA S TO SW UPPER FLOW. THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 71W AND COMBINING WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF E-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N75W OVER W HAITI
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SIMILAR
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH
CENTRAL AMERICA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT
TERMINATES S OF BARBADOS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 18/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH
32N74W TO INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE. HEAVY RAIN
IS S OF THE FRONT TO 25N W OF 78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 78W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
HIGH E OF TRINIDAD NEAR 10N58W TO BEYOND 32N56W COVERING THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-78W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE W
ATLC GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 70W WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS S OF A WARM FRONT THAT AS
OF 18/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR
27N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM
20W-45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N27W EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N32W TO 18N41W CONTINUING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 12N54W TO S OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
180/200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 21N. A SERIES OF SMALL MID LEVEL
SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD
FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net