[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR
6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST BASIN
SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
29N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR 24N95W. WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THIS FRONT. FROM THE SAME LOW CENTER...A SECOND
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ORLEANS AND ENTERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE LOW HAS
MOVED OUT OF FLORIDA LEAVING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATE SOUTH OF 27N. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS
THESE SURFACE FEATURES. THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
NEARLY REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN.
THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WEST OF 72W. THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN AS WELL. THIS ATMOSPHERE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
BASIN BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA
AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR GRENADA AND CONTINUES NORTHWEST TO NEAR 15N64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 31N70W TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE 1008 MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTER ALONG 25N75W TO
25N71W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE
FRONT. FURTHERMORE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF
THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 35W TO 75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE  ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 62W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N26W TO
20N34W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 16N41W 12N50W
BECOMING A SHEAR LINE THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ISLAND
OF GRENADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 TO 130 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT
NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEARLINE. LOOK FOR
THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA





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