[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON APR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 4N45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 22W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
GENERALLY NE TO E SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
HIGHEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA REGION WHERE A WEAK
SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS EXTREME SE FLORIDA
TO NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING S OF 27N E OF
82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ACROSS NE
FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N84W. ALSO HIGHER TPW VALUES ARE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF
95W. THROUGH MIDWEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF. AS A RESULT...INCREASED EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THAT IS PROVIDING MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA
AIDED IN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THESE AREAS...BUT ARE QUICKLY LOSING THEIR ENERGY DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...A PAIR OF LOW-LEVEL SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM
19N61W TO 16N63W WHILE THE OTHER IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTH ATLC FROM 13N-16N ALONG 57W. WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGHS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
64W...INCLUDING MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TRADES AND
FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM A 1022 MB LOW CENTERED
EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W ALONG 29N65W TO 29N71W CONTINUING AS
A SHEARLINE TO THE SE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC N OF
20N W OF 62W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION
AND SPREAD DEBRIS CLOUDINESS NORTHEASTWARD. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
37N47W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE OCEANIC WATERS BETWEEN 40W-60W.
HOWEVER...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ARE ANALYZED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND FROM 13N-16N ALONG 57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
RESULTING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN
53W-63W. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 54W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED 1002 MB LOW NEAR 35N25W ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N16W ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANARY
ISLANDS THEN ALONG 25N21W 21N33W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO ANALYZED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 31N18W TO 25N28W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NW. THESE PAIR OF BOUNDARIES ARE
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
35N23W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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