[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-7 IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W 2N30W 3N44W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL BRAZIL FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TO 88W. THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF 88W
IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 31N73W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 17N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW CURVES ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. THE
SURFACE WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LARGELY FROM EAST
TO SOUTHEAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 13N TO 16N. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE
IS ALONG 20N62W 18N64W 16N65W...PARTIALLY THROUGH THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE AND PARTIALLY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. THE OVERALL
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 31N63W...AND THEN IT STARTS TO
DISSIPATE FROM 31N63W TO 30N66W 30N70W AND 29N75W. A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 29N75W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST THAT IS NEAR 26N80W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS PUSHING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W
AND 80W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CLOUD LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH 31N73W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO
23N78W TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS CONNECTED TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS NEAR 34N25W.
A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N22W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES FROM THE 1002 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 32N15W TO 29N16W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N16W TO 20N19W. ONE TROUGH IS ABOUT
160 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND TROUGH IS ANOTHER
NEARLY 240 NM OF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT





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