[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SRN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 1N20W
1S30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W TO 1S60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 35W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 41W-51.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 26N80W 24N83W 23N87W.
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40
NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FURTHER SOUTH TO 23N E OF 83W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD
AND INTO THE ERN GULF SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR TO THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN GULF. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE FAR WRN
GULF ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 95W-100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN
THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THESE
AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE
NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SRN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS E
TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IN UPPER LEVEL
WLY FLOW. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE
ISLAND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 65W-68W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST
LIKELY ENHANCED BY CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
HALF OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 11N E OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W 29N65W 29N70W 28N74W WHERE IT
CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE SE
FLORIDA COAST ALONG 27N79W 26N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 69W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO
FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 78W-82W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA AND S
FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED
STATES SEABOARD SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROVIDES
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FURTHER SUPPORTING THE AREAS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF
THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 31N80W  TO 29N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 36N46W
DOMINATES THE AREA PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 35W-65W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
19N58W 13N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1004 MB LOW NEAR
36N24W ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N18W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 26N21W 21N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ALONG 32N20W 27N25W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 35N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON/RAMOS





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