[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N19W 1N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AND INTO BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WITH SE TO S SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AS A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO MOVING
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
REMAINING INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF W OF A LINE FROM
VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO 25N95W...THUS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER ALL
BUT THE SE CARIBBEAN. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
17N63W TO 14N72W. THE SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 81W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N69W PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
THIS EVENING. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 25N FROM 29W-43W SUPPORTING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING ALONG 24N36W TO 19N43W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO THE ISLAND OF BARBADOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 25N. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE TROPICS NEAR 5N33W 20N20W TO 32N12W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE



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